RV (Rotate Vector) reducer is an essential mechanical transmission device extensively used in industrial machinery, robotics, aerospace and other fields. The dynamic transmission characteristics and strength of the cycloidal pin gear, turning arm bearing of RV reducer significantly affect the motion accuracy and reliability of the whole equipment. Uncertainties from manufacturing and assembly error, working loads add complexity to these effects. Developing effective methods for uncertainty propagation and reliability analysis for the RV reducer is crucial. In this work, the mail failure modes of RV reducer are studied, and an effective reliability analysis method for RV reducer considering the correlation between multi-failure modes by combining polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) and saddlepoint approximation method (SPA) is proposed. This paper develops an uncertainty propagation strategy for RV reducer based on dynamic simulation and PCE method with high accuracy. On this basis, a surrogated cumulant generating function (CGF) and SPA are combined to analyze the stochastic characteristic for the failure behavior. Based on the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculated by SPA, copula function is employed to quantify the correlations between the multi-failure modes. Then, the system reliability with multi-failure modes is estimated by SPA and optimal copula function. The proposed method provides an effective reliability assessment technology with high-accuracy for complex system under unknown physical model and distribution characteristics. The validity of the proposed approach is illustrated RV-320E reducer reliability estimation, offering a basis to improve the performance of complex dynamic system. .

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